Market Volatility Amid Gold and Silver Pullback
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July 29, 2025
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In the early hours of Tuesday trading in the United States, gold and silver prices faced a downward trajectory. The previous night, gold prices had surged to new historical heights, leading short-term futures traders to lock in their profits. This reaction is not uncommon, as investors often decide to cash in once asset prices increase significantly—such was the case with the recent gold price dip. However, experts note that it would not be surprising if bullish investors seized the opportunity to buy on the dip, further fueling demand for gold. Historically regarded as a safe-haven asset, gold is favored by many investors, making fluctuations in its price closely watched. As the trading day concluded in April, gold had dropped by $18.40, closing at $2916.00. This price shift reflects not only the immediate supply-and-demand dynamics of the market but also impacts investor sentiment and subsequent decision-making processes. Silver followed suit, experiencing a decline of $0.656 to finish at $31.835, highlighting the ongoing battle between bullish and bearish forces in the market.
When we turn our gaze to the global stock markets, we find a mixed bag as Asian and European indices oscillated between gains and losses overnight. This fragmentation illustrates regional economic disparities and diverging investor expectations. As the New York trading session began, it was anticipated that American stock indices would open lower, reflecting renewed risk aversion among some investors on Tuesday. The economic policies from the recent U.S. administration have become pivotal factors driving market volatility. The new administration has warned of imposing a 25% tariff on all imported metals starting from March and hinted that tariffs on steel and aluminum might be "even higher." This announcement acted as a bombshell, reverberating across the markets. Given that steel and aluminum are fundamental raw materials, any significant increases in tariffs would directly influence industry costs and profits, shaking the entire economic landscape. The European Union was quick to respond, vowing to implement robust countermeasures. The escalation in trade tensions undoubtedly aggravates global economic uncertainty, heightening investor anxiety concerning future market prospects, which has been a critical factor explaining the softer opening of U.S. indices and the resurgence of risk aversion trends.
Today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify on U.S. monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington, and on Wednesday, he will also address the House Financial Services Committee. These sessions are garnering significant attention, as lawmakers are likely to inquire how the new tariffs will impact the American economy. The newly announced tariffs have not only altered the competitive landscape for domestic industries but could also have profound implications for U.S. import and export trade, employment rates, and overall inflation levels. As the governor of the Federal Reserve, Powell's insights on these matters will provide vital policy direction, and both investors and businesses are closely monitoring his statements for cues regarding future economic trends and potential adjustments in monetary policy.
From a broader external market perspective, the U.S. dollar index has seen a slight decline on Tuesday. The dollar, functioning as the primary global reserve currency, exhibits considerable influence over international financial markets through its fluctuations. A drop in the dollar index might increase the appeal of assets denominated in other currencies, which can consequently affect international trade dynamics. In commodity trading, crude oil futures at the New York Mercantile Exchange were priced higher, hovering around $73.25 per barrel. The volatility in oil prices, a crucial energy commodity, not only impacts the energy sector but also sends ripples through transportation, manufacturing, and various other industries. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds currently stands at 4.521%, with changes in yields reflecting the market's supply-demand balance and economic outlook.
Recent U.S. economic data released on Tuesday painted a more comprehensive picture of the country’s economic health. The Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report and the NFIB Small Business Index offered varying perspectives on the vitality and challenges of the American economy. Retail sales figures reveal consumers' willingness and ability to spend, while the small business index reflects the operational status and confidence levels among small enterprises. More detailed American economic data is expected to be released on Wednesday, with January's consumer price index (CPI) noted to have risen by 2.9% year-on-year; the "core" CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to grow by 3.1% annually. Such inflation statistics are critical indicators of economic health, where elevated inflation might prompt central banks to adjust monetary policies, affecting corporate and consumer decision-making.
From a technical analysis perspective, the bullish trend in April gold futures suggests a strong overall technical advantage in the short term. The daily candlestick charts are trending upward, indicating sustained demand for gold in the long run. The next target for the bulls is to close above a robust resistance level of $3000.00; a breakthrough here could trigger a new bullish wave in gold prices. Conversely, bears will aim to push prices lower, targeting a solid technical support level of $2800.00, a move that would significantly undermine the confidence of bullish investors. The first resistance level is identified at $2938.10, followed by $2950.00, while the first support level rests at $2900.00, subsequently followed by this week's low at $2879.90—all essential battle points for the bulls and bears. Our market rating stands at 9.0, indicating a heightened activity level and investment potential in the gold market in the short term.
In the silver market, March futures are also showing an upward trend on the daily chart, indicating that bulls hold an overall technical advantage in the short term. Aiming for a closing price above the strong technical resistance at $34.00, which would pave the way for further surges in silver prices, is the next target for bullish investors. Meanwhile, bears are targeting a closing price below the solid support level at $31.00; a break beneath this level could lead to significant downward pressure on silver prices. The first resistance is pinpointed at $32.00, followed by today's high at $32.66. The next support level is expected to be at the overnight low of $31.65, followed by $31.25. Our market rating for silver stands at 6.0, indicating potential for growth in the silver market, albeit with relatively higher levels of uncertainty and risk compared to gold.
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